The media is foaming at the mouth at the prospect of a war between North Korea and the USA.
Is a nuclear war likely between North Korea and the USA? Are Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un likely to go to war?
We say no.
It’s all theatre. Or at least, it’s all theatre now North Korea’s powerful neighbour China have clarified their position thus:
China’s state-run Global Times said: “If the US and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.”
Be under no doubt whatsoever, despite the US being the most warmongering, terroristic, aggressive state on the planet, since it got its arse kicked in Vietnam, it chooses its battles carefully. It only fights wars it thinks it can win.
The US would love nothing more than to invade North Korea, kill Kim Jong-Un and destroy the country as it did with everywhere else it brought “democracy” to.
The prospect of filling North Korea with American missiles pointed at Russia and China makes the warmongers in DC drool down their flabby faces.
However, American aggression knows it’s limits. Its limits are North Korea’s neighbours: The largest economy on the planet and the largest country on the planet.
It will not fight China. It will not fight Russia. Both countries have an interest in what is going on in their backyard.
Look at the recent history of the US regime change roadshow, those places they “spread democracy to”. They are usually weak, poor states. Often sandy places where blokes travel on camels. And those crusades all take a decade each or more, and result in no defined victory.
That isn’t North Korea. North Korea is a nuclear enabled state with a six million strong army. North Korea is now protected from American invasion by China. North Korea is safe as long as it does not strike first.
Which it won’t. because Kim Jong-Un may be many things, but stupid isn’t one of them. Ignore how our fake news media caricatures him.
Trump is a mouth on a stick. He isnt the man making the decisions in the US as his soon-quashed “muslim ban” demonstrated. He is the mouthpiece that fat men with many guns in pickup trucks vote for because he says vulgar things they like while wearing a baseball cap.
The power in the US is the Neocon war machine in the background. They now know that China, by guaranteeing North Korea’s security, has in one swoop rendered them impotent.
I do not think that the Trump regime really wants war with North Korea but they are engaged in a dance.
Lets make a very short analysis of what the DPRK desired outcomes are and those for the USA.
The DPRK wants the US to return to the treaties negotiated between North Korea and the US but abrogated by the US.
Those treaties enabled North Korea and the US to communicate, they gave some guarantees for the security of the DPRK and enabled the DPRK to engage in trade with the rest of the world.
The US would provide assistance in building two nuclear power plants in North Korea. In return the DPRK would not start developing a nuclear weapons program and given the US built power plants would not have the means to do so.
The US wants to have the ability to point weapons at China and Russia, wants to maintain a strong military presence in South Korea that threatens China and very much wants to maintain a destabilising influence in this part of Asia.
When one looks at these ‘needs’ and prefered outcomes the US and North Korea are actually on the same page of the hymn book! Quite literally the only thing that needs to happen is that the US carries out its treaty obligations toward North Korea.
Spooklily, that’s exactly what the DPRK has been asking for for many years.
On the side, neither China or Russia want the DPRK to have nuclear weapons but neither has the power to stop them from having them – nor does the USA.
Those weapons will only go away when North Korea feels that it is safe for them to go away. DPRK is NOT the puppet of the Chinese. The Juche concept makes sure of it. However, North Korea understands and recognises the position of China in the North Korean economy and culture.
EVERYTHING that is happening now, from all stakeholders, is designed to enable just one thing: direct negotiations between the DPRK and USA and, ultimately, that the US recognises and carries out its treaty obligations toward the DPRK.
For China and Russia that outcome is not ideal because it leaves the US with weapons in South Korea pointed toward both Russia and China but it is MUCH better than having the US bouncing around trying to impose yet more ‘democracy’ on the Chinese and Russian borders.
I think that Trump is well aware of the dance and the steps but is dancing with the weight of congress on his back. No matter how good a dancer he is, his feet will fall heavily.
I think that his counterparts in Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow are aware of the handicaps faced by the Leader Of The Free World [sic] and their rhetoric and actions are designed to compensate for Trump’s limited dancing ability.
The United States has reneged on its treaty obligations. These are choices made the United States specifically to cause harm to the people of North Korea.
There will be no war. The US isn’t capable of taking on China and Kim Jong-Un wont put himself in the position by striking first of having China be neutral.
It looks like a stalemate. But in fact, it’s game set and match to China. They want to see the influence of the US minimised, especially in Asia.
This episode teaches the Americans they won’t be invading China’s neighbours any time soon.