Tag Archives: US Dollar

Oil: The US is in for a Bumpy Ride.

If the current price regime continues for years into the future than the value of the big agreements made last year might be impacted but the thing is that China and Russia are dealing in yuan and roubles, not in dollars. This means that the dollar’s fluctuations are not relevant and the price of the rouble and yuan as a pair will be much more stable than rouble – dollar -yuan will be.

China has devalued slightly, but the currency, due to its link to the dollar, is still very over valued. They could move another 20% to get to the ‘correct’ value. Of course by doing so they’d kick the US in the nuts such that they’d not be getting off the floor for a while.

For them cheaper energy is worthwhile but is not essential. It was the decline in China’s energy consumption early last year that told us what was happening globally – that consumption of Chinese goods was falling. The Chinese knew this too, before the energy figures gave he game away. That led them to move ahead with moving toward the internal market which has a huge amount of room to grow – just as the US market did from early in the last century when they were already the world’s largest economy (since about 1870).

It is obvious that the Chinese devaluation was a signal to the IMF and US. As many do not understand, a currency pegged to another, as the yuan and dollar are, are not freely traded. For inclusion in the IMF basket the yuan needs to be unpegged, either fully or almost so.

This is a signal to the IMF that China is willing to do what is needed.

The US is being told that China will no longer support the dollar as it has been doing.

Whilst events may seem to be coincidental they are probably less coincidental than we might imagine. China is making foreign policy moves, in concert with Russia. Saudi Arabia is making its own moves. The target, on the whole, is the US.

The goal is to force the dollar into appreciation against as many significant currency pairs as possible thus weakening the US freedom of action across the globe and in the internal market.

Remember, having a ‘strong’ currency is often not the best option, especially when the holders of that currency have been spending the past 6 years trying to devalue it, without success.

The big issue facing all of us is this: it is quite possible that the global economy can no longer afford to pay as much as it is for oil. If we can not afford to pay then we will not and the price will fall further. This WILL result in a fall in oil output from all but the cheapest sources – this means the US will cease to produce almost any oil. Only the cheapest producers will be viable and only the cheapest producers with manufacturing infrastructure will be able to maintain anything like current standards of living. Continue reading

Posted in Politics & Random Musings | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why the US Economy is Finished. The Managed Decline of the USA by Russia & China.

We should hope they will succeed. Not because of any ill feeling towards America, but WW3 started on the back of economics to save a country hopelessly in debt will embroil much of the world. I think what we are seeing with Russia, China and others is a long, slow, managed decline of America to a regional power. The dollar, at one time America’s strength, will become the tool to create that managed decline of influence. Like I said before, America will go down kicking and screaming. And that is what may cause a war. Continue reading

Posted in Politics & Random Musings | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment