Crimea & Russia – The Aftermath.

By | March 28, 2014

Following Russia’s recent re-acquisition of its territory in Crimea from an unstable Ukraine, we must wonder what comes next.

What isn’t likely to come next – contrary to what the hysterical media will have you believe – is that Russia will be ‘invading’ (as they put it) anywhere else too soon.

Despite the fever pitch whipped up in the media, those familiar with Russian thinking know full well that the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and Poland have nothing fear from Russia, despite the pontificating and sabre rattling of America and its EU puppets.

Well, as long as they don’t start poking the bear with a stick that is.

The hysterical Western media will have you believe Russia taking Crimea back over was an act of expansion of the “Russian Empire” or Putin trying to recreate the USSR. As we explained in the article here: Ukraine and American News Propaganda fed to the Sheeple, it is nothing of the sort.

The reason is simple: Putin took the only logical course of action he could when confronted with a possible NATO member Ukraine.  Do you REALLY think he’d allow the only warm water port that his navy has access to to fall under control of a NATO country?

Where does that leave Ukraine in the aftermath?

At the moment Ukraine is like a young girl choosing between two marriage proposals.

She does not want to alienate either suitor but can not make up her mind which way to go.

So, as we can now see, actions being taken by the interim government are designed to placate both parties without making irrevocable commitments to either.

Based upon the raw economics, Ukraine can not afford to join with the EU in an association, especially when they understand that association is not membership.

As I already noted, it would seem that having looked at Ukraine’s business plan and having a better understanding of the resources available the interim government, fronted by the PM a seemingly very smart bloke, now understand much better the reality facing the legitimate government.

I am absolutely certain that if it was possible for Ukraine to have signed the economic part of the association document that she would have done so – no ‘nationalist’ pleas, threats or cajoling otherwise would have done the trick. The association deal was, as we know, the ostensible reason for the coup so not going ahead is a very big issue.

As for war, I see, absent some really shoddy statecraft on the part of the US, no chance that we will see any escalation to war.

Here’s why: When all this stuff arose a few weeks ago it was a shock to the US at the national security level. They fondly imagined streets strewn with roses just as they had wrongly imagined in Iraq a decade before. When these guys feel threatened there is no room for dissent, no wish to introduce contrary ideas and the old ‘experienced’ hands with their long memories of their youthful encounters with the Soviet Union come to the fore.

Later, there comes room for analysis, for consideration and for new thinking. That is happening now. Given that it is my firm belief that what we see in the media at these times is a reflection of the narrative chosen at high levels of government and commerce we can now see that there is room in the mass media for some new and contrarian opinion and analysis. That is a reflection of what is going on in closed rooms in the White House, Pentagon and other more secret places. Indeed some of the contributors will be those writing the pieces we are now seeing.

This process of understanding, willingness to introduce new ideas and challenge old hands takes time and, of course, there is a similar process in Russia, albeit that the Russian government did not start this, they were reacting to external stimuli as best they could and were thus in an even worse state than the US. Now the Russians are gaining a decent picture of the limits of the problems, the extent of the new threats and they seem to be much more nimble than the US. Probably proximity both culturally and geographically helps. I think a strong leader is also key here. I have previously written about Obama’s lack of control over events – we see the effects now. The US needs a visible leader.

Whatever happens the ongoing situation will be more delicate and more unstable than hitherto but at the same time the quality of knowledge about each other in both the Russian and US administrations, at all levels, will have been improved.

Russia and the US have good reason to find common cause.

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