They say that what goes around comes around.
It seems a while ago now that President Yanukovych of Ukraine was ousted in an illegal US and EU led coup d’etat and the softly-spoken Poroshenko installed in his place as American puppet.
Readers can be forgiven for not understanding that what happened in Ukraine as a coup d’etat, as it is hard to get to the facts sometimes above the constant – yet incorrect – western media propaganda drone of Russian Aggression we hear daily.
The United States and the ever-pliant EU have been earnestly telling us that Mr Yanukovych’s removal was alright really as he was a not nice bloke who was more concerned in filling his pockets than helping Ukraine prosper.
Poroshenko was ushered in amidst free cookies and Neocon applause. The American political Biden family and others over the pond rubbed their hands at the prospect of another war and another bunch of utilities and state companies they can install themselves and their cohorts in.
But months later, when Ukraine isn’t doing entirely what Uncle Sam is telling it to, the Roshen chocolate baron has to have an eye on the future.
Poroshenko, who was an active supporter the Maidan ‘protests’ before the February 2014 coup d’etat, said a few days ago that the law on “the removal of the presidential title from Viktor Yanukovych” was unconstitutional.
Shall we call that an about turn then?
This move sparked speculation that Poroshenko is in defacto agreement that the 2014 coup had been illegitimate. As most of us who keep an eye on this stuff had been saying all along.
Poroshenko knows he is on borrowed time as president of Ukraine. He knows that McCain and Kerry and the rest of the cookie-hand-out, regime change roadshow from the US may be inclined to have him ousted in a similar manner to his predecessor.
So what better time to underline that coup d’etats are illegal and unconstitutional?
The Right Sector Factor
Members of Right Sector were being trained in Kiev and Poland well before the Maidan ‘protests’. At the time, there were not many members of Right Sector.
Right Sector would be unlikely to win a fair election, but they have been trained to be the wedge, the tipping point.
That is how they have attained such power in the current RADA, you might want to do some reading about just who are Right Sector RADA members and ministers; you’d need to be looking at the ‘independent’ members who stood without party affiliation. This is a peculiarity of the Ukrainian electoral system.
On a slightly broader note, it is well known to those who are interested in such things, that the proportion of the population whose active support and agitation required to effect a non-democratic change is something under 10%.
There is little doubt that such a proportion of the population could be mustered under the various right wing and nationalistic banners. Even with fewer people, the degree of upheaval within society would be huge and would force a change in direction from society and government.
This is one reason that we know that the ‘Maidan’ event was not a democratic representation of the will of the people.
However, this is not about winning elections. This is about having people in place for the next coup d’etat. Poroshenko is well aware of this, and it is why he has appealed to the Ukrainian court of human rights to have Yanukovych’s ejection recorded as having been unconstitutional.
By doing this, he is seeking to ensure that other people and groups whom Right Sector almost certainly allied with cannot so easily do to him that which was done to Yanukovych. He is pulling up the drawbridge you might say.
It is, of course, a recognition of the truth that there was a coup d’etat, and will make this a matter of legal record rather than simply being an obvious reality.
Some say that Poroshenko, well before his elevation to president, made clear his understanding that there had been a coup d’etat so this is no kind of a policy u-turn for him, and should therefore raise no criticism of him for his having taken this measure. It is absolutely necessary for the future well being of Ukraine.
But is self-preservation or the well being of Ukraine his motive?
Kiev’s dreams of retaking Crimea and the independent regions of Donbass have finally been recognised in Washington and Brussels as the pipe dream they always were.
Attempts to isolate Russia with sanctions have failed miserably. The Rouble is the best performing currency of the year and the Russian economy is set to return to growth next year – sanctions or not.
America has now opened up what it calls a ‘direct channel of communication with Russia’ on the Ukraine crisis (better late than never I suppose). One reason Kerry was recently in Sochi and Nuland in Moscow.
Meanwhile, Poroshenko has fired the head of the Security Service, a chap called Nalivaichenko who was rumoured to be an American operative. The Minister of Internal Affairs is said by some watchers to be next in line for the chop. No doubt others will follow.
The US has realised it needs to get out of Ukraine while saving face. Responsibility will be quietly passed to Russia to help bring the Ukraine crisis to an end (again, better late than never I suppose).
This means it is time for Poroshenko to go. But where? Putin wont rescue him as he did with his predecessor. Or if he does, it will have more strings attached than he will like.
Poroshenko is pulling up the drawbridges and trying to surround himself with his own men.
A futile attempt in my opinion. The writing is on the wall.
A guest article by Stuart Smith. You can follow him on Twitter @RussianHQ.